Analytical Sciences

Development and Verification of a Model for Estimating the Screening Utility in the Detection of PCBs in Transformer Oil

Shingo TERAKADO,* Thomas R. GLASS,** Kazuhiro SASAKI,* and Naoya OHMURA*

*Environmental Science Research Laboratory, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 1646 Abiko, Abiko, Chiba 270-1194, Japan
**Sapidyne Instruments Inc., 700 W. Diamond St., Boise, ID 83706, USA

A simple new model for estimating the screening performance (false positive and false negative rates) of a given test for a specific sample population is presented. The model is shown to give good results on a test population, and is used to estimate the performance on a sampled population. Using the model developed in conjunction with regulatory requirements and the relative costs of the confirmatory and screening tests allows evaluation of the screening test’s utility in terms of cost savings. Testers can use the methods developed to estimate the utility of a screening program using available screening tests with their own sample populations.

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